Tuesday, May 10, 2011

experts?

The other night, the newscaster had some good news to announce: That experts were predicting the price of gasoline would fall significantly from the painful levels we have right now, perhaps by as much as 50 cents a gallon, and perhaps as early as June.

Wow.. I have to ask - are these the same "experts" who just a couple of weeks ago were telling us to expect prices as high as $6.00 a gallon by the end of the year?

Just who the heck are these "experts" anyway? I would like to know if they are the same "experts" in both cases. Or is there an "increasing price expert" and a "decreasing price expert" and the news just contacts the one that is the right "expert???"

Seriously, I am bugged by this because to me, why do we need these so-called "experts" in the first place? It's tragic that people get paid to be "experts" in predicting things when they know no better than the average person, or a coin toss, yet they get paid for making these predictions.

Any time it comes to making predictions about stuff, I laugh when people turn to the "experts" to hear what they have to say. Whether it is with gasoline prices, sports (such as how the Lakers would get to the finals again this year), the stock market (some experts say the market is going up, some say going down), or whatever, just exactly what qualifies them to make predictions that are any better than what you or I could do?

I'll tell you what - a lucky streak in which their predictions have come true. Or maybe not even a streak, but an instance in which they called something against the grain and it just happened to turn out that way. So then everyone thought wow, this person must know something.. must have some inside track. And then they become a guru.

What you really need is to find a coin that has come up heads more often than tails. That can then be designated as an "expert" coin because it has been able more often than not to come up heads.

Over time, though, that coin will revert to the laws of probability, same as the so-called "experts."

The thing is, if that lucky coin happens to be a penny, it only cost you a penny, which is about all it is worth as far as being an "expert" coin. The sad thing is that the "experts" on the media get far more than what they are worth.

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